The Esports Analyst
Receipts

Track record

Every pick is locked before the match and graded automatically. Nothing is deleted, nothing is re-rated after the fact. This page is the whole record.

68.3%tips landed
0.205mean Brier score
328matches graded

Calibration is the real test: if the model's 64% picks land about 64% of the time, the numbers are honest. Below, every graded pick is bucketed by the probability the model gave team A and checked against how often team A actually won.

By league

LeagueGradedLandedBrier
LCK Playoffs1080.0%0.189
IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs1070.0%0.217
BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs944.4%0.232
EPL Masters Group B988.9%0.098
Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs966.7%0.211
LPL Playoffs837.5%0.401
LCS Regular Season887.5%0.099
ESL Challenger League South America Cup #1 Playoffs771.4%0.259
BLAST Open Porto Group B771.4%0.142
North American Challengers League Playoffs757.1%0.275
VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs742.9%0.256
CCT South America Series 5 Group Stage7100.0%0.097
CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs785.7%0.169
LEC Regular Season683.3%0.151
MPL Indonesia Regular Season650.0%0.305
CCT South America Series 5 Playoffs6100.0%0.098
PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs666.7%0.191
CCT Europe Series #8 Playoffs683.3%0.136
VCT Pacific Playoffs580.0%0.214
Rift Legends Gauntlet Stage560.0%0.171
CCT Europe Series #8 Group Stage560.0%0.193
Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Playoffs560.0%0.234
China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs5100.0%0.120
EPL Masters Playoffs5100.0%0.135
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A520.0%0.442
1win Private Club #1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs580.0%0.223
PGL Masters Bucharest: North American Qualifier Playoffs580.0%0.121
North America League Stage 2 Group Stage540.0%0.320
Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Playoffs520.0%0.297
Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage4100.0%0.126
Prime League 1st Division Playoffs425.0%0.367
EPL Masters Group A425.0%0.374
NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs475.0%0.149
Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs475.0%0.169
BLAST Open Porto Playoffs475.0%0.204
LPLOL Playoffs450.0%0.218
MPL Malaysia Regular Season425.0%0.349
CN League Stage 2 Group Stage475.0%0.189
South America League Stage 2 Group Stage475.0%0.226
Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group B4100.0%0.169
CCT Europe Series #7 Playoffs366.7%0.166
CBLOL Regular Season3100.0%0.042
BLAST Open Porto Group A3100.0%0.074
NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage366.7%0.321
MPL Philippines Regular Season3100.0%0.141
PGL Masters European Open Qualifier #1 Playoffs333.3%0.311
Stage 2 Group Stage366.7%0.105
Rift Legends Playoffs333.3%0.305
Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group C333.3%0.388
TCL Playoffs2100.0%0.107
LCP Playoffs2100.0%0.094
LES Final Four250.0%0.272
LRN Playoffs2100.0%0.070
Road Of Legends Playoffs250.0%0.219
CBLOL Playoffs2100.0%0.139
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B250.0%0.209
PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs250.0%0.225
LEC Playoffs2100.0%0.190
LCS Playoffs2100.0%0.124
Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs2100.0%0.200
European Pro League Series 9 Group C250.0%0.276
Europe MENA League Stage 2 Group Stage250.0%0.388
Rift Legends Regular Season10.0%0.267
Road Of Legends Regular Season10.0%0.274
LPL Knights Rivals1100.0%0.075
LCK Play-In1100.0%0.127
EPL Masters Play-In Group A1100.0%0.238
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #8 Group A1100.0%0.083
Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Group B10.0%0.345
Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Group C10.0%0.354
VCT Game Changers EMEA Playoffs10.0%0.267
ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #5 Group A1100.0%0.022
Stake Ranked Episode 4: Open Qualifier Playoffs1100.0%0.056
Circuito Desafiante Playoffs1100.0%0.040
HLL Playoffs10.0%0.477
ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #5 Playoffs1100.0%0.098
LFL Playoffs10.0%0.394
LRS Playoffs1100.0%0.081
IEM Beijing: Asian Qualifier Playoffs10.0%0.664
Hitpoint Masters Regular Season10.0%0.665
PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Open Qualifier #1 Playoffs1100.0%0.015
PGL Masters European Open Qualifier #2 Playoffs10.0%0.432
LCK Challengers League Playoffs10.0%0.321
ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #6 Group D1100.0%0.050
Prime League 1st Division Promotion Playoffs1100.0%0.012
LIT Playoffs10.0%0.283
NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B1100.0%0.017
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs1100.0%0.105
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #9 Group D1100.0%0.095
BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs1100.0%0.054
NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In1100.0%0.064
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #9 Group A10.0%0.304
CIS LAN Championship Group D10.0%0.537
World Star Challengers Invitational EMEA Qualifier Playoffs1100.0%0.081
Exort Fiesta Group Stage1100.0%0.157
CIS LAN Championship Group C1100.0%0.055
Hitpoint Masters Playoffs1100.0%0.099
European Pro League Group B1100.0%0.012
RLCS World Championship Play-In1100.0%0.075
VCT Game Changers Pacific Playoffs1100.0%0.038
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #9 Play-In1100.0%0.124
Stake Ranked Episode 5: Open Qualifier Playoffs1100.0%0.240
CCT South America Challengers #3 Playoffs1100.0%0.009

Calibration by decile

predicted probabilityactual win rate0%50%100%
Predicted rangeNPredictedActual
0–10%14.7%0.0%
10–20%1414.2%28.6%
20–30%2626.0%23.1%
30–40%5035.1%32.0%
40–50%5045.0%46.0%
50–60%5754.9%54.4%
60–70%5665.1%75.0%
70–80%3874.6%68.4%
80–90%2784.5%88.9%
90–100%991.5%100.0%