Receipts

Track record

Every pick is locked before the match and graded automatically. Nothing is deleted, nothing is re-rated after the fact. This page is the whole record.

65.7%tips landed

0.208mean Brier score

931matches graded

Calibration is the real test: if the model's 64% picks land about 64% of the time, the numbers are honest. Below, every graded pick is bucketed by the probability the model gave team A and checked against how often team A actually won.

By league

League	Graded	Landed	Brier
EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	45	57.8%	0.218
Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	20	70.0%	0.221
Worlds Group Stage	20	60.0%	0.233
MPL Indonesia Regular Season	19	47.4%	0.249
PGL Wallachia Group Stage	19	78.9%	0.148
PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	16	50.0%	0.251
ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs	15	73.3%	0.172
EPL Masters Group B	14	85.7%	0.123
ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs	14	50.0%	0.279
NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage	13	53.8%	0.251
NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	13	92.3%	0.144
North America League Stage 2 Group Stage	12	33.3%	0.305
ESL Pro League Group Stage	11	72.7%	0.167
EPL Masters Play-In Group A	10	70.0%	0.202
LCK Playoffs	10	80.0%	0.189
IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs	10	70.0%	0.217
CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs	10	60.0%	0.246
LCS Playoffs	10	60.0%	0.244
StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	10	80.0%	0.180
Logitech G Play Connect Group A	10	80.0%	0.212
VCT Champions Playoffs	10	60.0%	0.245
BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	9	44.4%	0.232
Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	9	66.7%	0.211
CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage	9	88.9%	0.145
LPL Playoffs	8	37.5%	0.401
LCS Regular Season	8	87.5%	0.099
CN League Stage 2 Group Stage	8	75.0%	0.188
South America League Stage 2 Group Stage	8	62.5%	0.228
CCT Europe Series #9 Group Stage	8	37.5%	0.246
EMEA Masters Playoffs	8	87.5%	0.165
ESL Challenger League South America Cup #1 Playoffs	7	71.4%	0.259
BLAST Open Porto Group B	7	71.4%	0.142
North American Challengers League Playoffs	7	57.1%	0.275
VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs	7	42.9%	0.256
CCT South America Series 5 Group Stage	7	100.0%	0.097
EPL Masters Group A	7	42.9%	0.300
CBLOL Playoffs	7	85.7%	0.166
Europe MENA League Stage 2 Group Stage	7	42.9%	0.297
Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	7	85.7%	0.136
Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs	7	57.1%	0.238
LCS Promotion Playoffs	7	14.3%	0.419
Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	7	57.1%	0.228
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs	7	28.6%	0.267
PARI Universe Playoffs	7	71.4%	0.198
LEC Regular Season	6	83.3%	0.151
CCT South America Series 5 Playoffs	6	100.0%	0.098
Stage 2 Group Stage	6	66.7%	0.156
PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs	6	66.7%	0.191
CCT Europe Series #8 Playoffs	6	83.3%	0.136
Logitech G Play Connect Group B	6	33.3%	0.256
PGL Wallachia Playoffs	6	83.3%	0.118
VCT Pacific Playoffs	5	80.0%	0.214
Rift Legends Gauntlet Stage	5	60.0%	0.171
CCT Europe Series #8 Group Stage	5	60.0%	0.193
Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Playoffs	5	60.0%	0.234
MPL Malaysia Regular Season	5	40.0%	0.292
China Evolution Series Act 3 Playoffs	5	100.0%	0.120
EPL Masters Playoffs	5	100.0%	0.135
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A	5	20.0%	0.442
1win Private Club #1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	5	80.0%	0.223
PGL Masters Bucharest: North American Qualifier Playoffs	5	80.0%	0.121
Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Playoffs	5	20.0%	0.297
CCT South America Series 6 Playoffs	5	100.0%	0.100
PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	5	20.0%	0.236
DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	5	80.0%	0.131
PGL Bucharest Closed Qualifier Playoffs	5	60.0%	0.240
PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	5	40.0%	0.302
Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage	4	100.0%	0.126
Prime League 1st Division Playoffs	4	25.0%	0.367
MPL Philippines Regular Season	4	100.0%	0.114
Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	4	75.0%	0.169
BLAST Open Porto Playoffs	4	75.0%	0.204
LPLOL Playoffs	4	50.0%	0.218
Rift Legends Playoffs	4	50.0%	0.262
Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group B	4	100.0%	0.169
Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs	4	25.0%	0.283
Circuito Retake Playoffs	4	100.0%	0.095
Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs	4	75.0%	0.160
CCT Europe Series #10 Group Stage	4	75.0%	0.226
BLAST Slam Group D	4	75.0%	0.227
1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	4	25.0%	0.248
DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	4	75.0%	0.213
CCT South America Series 7 Group Stage	4	75.0%	0.176
Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs	4	100.0%	0.161
PARI Universe Group B	4	50.0%	0.301
PARI Universe Group A	4	50.0%	0.167
Tesla Cup Group B	4	25.0%	0.312
CCT Europe Series #7 Playoffs	3	66.7%	0.166
CBLOL Regular Season	3	100.0%	0.042
BLAST Open Porto Group A	3	100.0%	0.074
PGL Masters European Open Qualifier #1 Playoffs	3	33.3%	0.311
Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group C	3	33.3%	0.388
LEC Playoffs	3	66.7%	0.214
Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs	3	66.7%	0.277
European Pro League Series 9 Group C	3	66.7%	0.219
European Pro League Group B	3	100.0%	0.074
VCT Game Changers Pacific Playoffs	3	66.7%	0.121
Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs	3	100.0%	0.136
World Star Challengers Invitational Group D	3	100.0%	0.211
FERJEE In House Group B	3	100.0%	0.063
CCT Europe Series #9 Playoffs	3	66.7%	0.186
VCT Champions Group B	3	66.7%	0.156
VCT Champions Group A	3	100.0%	0.071
CIS LAN Championship Playoffs	3	100.0%	0.159
DraculaN Playoffs	3	33.3%	0.447
North America League Stage 2 Playoffs	3	0.0%	0.326
ESL Pro League Playoffs	3	66.7%	0.226
Worlds Play-In	3	0.0%	0.452
Elisa BreakOut Series #2 Group A	3	100.0%	0.094
EPL Masters Play-In Group B	3	100.0%	0.096
CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage	3	66.7%	0.243
Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	3	100.0%	0.172
VCT Threshold China Week 2	3	100.0%	0.098
Gamers Club Masters Group B	3	66.7%	0.269
TCL Playoffs	2	100.0%	0.107
LCP Playoffs	2	100.0%	0.094
LES Final Four	2	50.0%	0.272
LRN Playoffs	2	100.0%	0.070
Road Of Legends Playoffs	2	50.0%	0.219
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B	2	50.0%	0.209
NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B	2	50.0%	0.134
PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs	2	50.0%	0.225
Hitpoint Masters Playoffs	2	100.0%	0.174
European Pro League Group A	2	100.0%	0.046
Circuito Retake Group C	2	100.0%	0.040
World Star Challengers Invitational Group A	2	50.0%	0.256
World Star Challengers Invitational Group C	2	0.0%	0.313
Exort Fiesta Playoffs	2	50.0%	0.235
EMEA Masters Group B	2	100.0%	0.075
DACH CS Masters Regular Season	2	50.0%	0.214
VCT Champions Group D	2	100.0%	0.138
FERJEE In House Playoffs	2	100.0%	0.169
World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs	2	50.0%	0.152
Urban Riga Open #7 Group B	2	50.0%	0.263
BLAST Slam Group C	2	100.0%	0.047
Stage 2 Playoffs	2	100.0%	0.127
ROG Journey Playoffs	2	50.0%	0.314
ROG Journey Group B	2	50.0%	0.294
ROG Journey Group A	2	0.0%	0.291
EMEA Masters Knockout Stage	2	100.0%	0.051
United21 Playoffs	2	50.0%	0.324
1win Private Club Playoffs	2	50.0%	0.277
CN League Stage 2 Playoffs	2	100.0%	0.058
MLBB Continental Championships Playoffs	2	100.0%	0.040
FiReSPORTS Last Chance Group A	2	50.0%	0.250
FiReSPORTS Last Chance Group B	2	0.0%	0.563
FiReSPORTS Last Chance Group C	2	50.0%	0.337
Rift Legends Regular Season	1	0.0%	0.267
Road Of Legends Regular Season	1	0.0%	0.274
LPL Knights Rivals	1	100.0%	0.075
LCK Play-In	1	100.0%	0.127
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #8 Group A	1	100.0%	0.083
Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Group B	1	0.0%	0.345
Logitech G Play Connect Closed Qualifier Group C	1	0.0%	0.354
VCT Game Changers EMEA Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.267
ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #5 Group A	1	100.0%	0.022
Stake Ranked Episode 4: Open Qualifier Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.056
Circuito Desafiante Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.040
HLL Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.477
ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #5 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.098
LFL Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.394
LRS Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.081
IEM Beijing: Asian Qualifier Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.664
Hitpoint Masters Regular Season	1	0.0%	0.665
PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Open Qualifier #1 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.015
PGL Masters European Open Qualifier #2 Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.432
LCK Challengers League Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.321
ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #6 Group D	1	100.0%	0.050
Prime League 1st Division Promotion Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.012
LIT Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.283
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.105
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #9 Group D	1	100.0%	0.095
BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.054
NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In	1	100.0%	0.064
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #9 Group A	1	0.0%	0.304
CIS LAN Championship Group D	1	0.0%	0.537
World Star Challengers Invitational EMEA Qualifier Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.081
Exort Fiesta Group Stage	1	100.0%	0.157
CIS LAN Championship Group C	1	100.0%	0.055
RLCS World Championship Play-In	1	100.0%	0.075
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #9 Play-In	1	100.0%	0.124
Stake Ranked Episode 5: Open Qualifier Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.240
LPL Regional Finals Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.199
European Pro League Series 9 Group A	1	0.0%	0.386
CCT South America Challengers #3 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.009
Circuit X Curitiba Group A	1	100.0%	0.086
Circuit X Curitiba Group D	1	100.0%	0.006
Circuito Retake Group A	1	0.0%	0.294
Circuit X Curitiba Group C	1	100.0%	0.078
Stake Pulse Beat II Group A	1	100.0%	0.052
MLBB Continental Championships Regular Season	1	0.0%	0.260
EMEA Masters Group A	1	100.0%	0.080
EMEA Masters Group C	1	100.0%	0.005
Stake Pulse Beat II Group B	1	0.0%	0.370
FERJEE In House Group A	1	100.0%	0.152
ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #7 Group D	1	100.0%	0.232
VCT Champions Group C	1	100.0%	0.194
European Pro League Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.215
iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN Group A	1	100.0%	0.143
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #10 Group D	1	100.0%	0.180
iBUYPOWER Masters FML Group B	1	100.0%	0.077
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #10 Group B	1	0.0%	0.376
Tipsport Cup Open #2 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.166
iBUYPOWER Masters FML Group A	1	0.0%	0.419
1win Private Club #1 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.224
iBUYPOWER Masters FML Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.105
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #10 Play-In	1	100.0%	0.066
European Pro League Series 9 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.209
CIS LAN Championship Group B	1	0.0%	0.636
BLAST Slam Group B	1	0.0%	0.595
BLAST Slam Group A	1	100.0%	0.029
FOX Legacy Cup Group B	1	100.0%	0.180
CBLOL Promotion Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.261
BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier	1	100.0%	0.137
Europe MENA League Stage 2 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.079
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group A	1	100.0%	0.244
Roman Imperium Cup Group A	1	100.0%	0.018
Roman Imperium Cup Play-In	1	100.0%	0.190
Majstrovstvá SR Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.029
NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C	1	100.0%	0.016
CCT Europe Series #10 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.022
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group C	1	0.0%	0.377
BLAST Slam Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.113
CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group D	1	100.0%	0.023
South America League Stage 2 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.223
Stake Pulse Beat III Group C	1	0.0%	0.292
Stake Pulse Beat III Group B	1	100.0%	0.101
Thunderpick World Championship Group A	1	100.0%	0.059
Stake Pulse Beat III Group D	1	100.0%	0.120
Thunderpick World Championship Group B	1	100.0%	0.173
Elisa BreakOut Series #2 Group B	1	0.0%	0.364
CCT Europe Series #11 Group Stage	1	100.0%	0.090
Elisa BreakOut Series #2 Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.399
CyberClash Closed Qualifier Group C	1	0.0%	0.402
DraculaN Group B	1	0.0%	0.266
1win Private Club #2 Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.349
Project Blender Phase 2 Group B	1	100.0%	0.036
MPL Philippines Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.040
Circuit X Curitiba Group B	1	100.0%	0.066
CCT Europe Series #11 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.127
Project Blender Phase 2 Group A	1	100.0%	0.097
CCT South America Series 7 Playoffs	1	100.0%	0.242
Tesla Cup Playoffs	1	0.0%	0.312
Gamers Club Masters Group A	1	100.0%	0.072
Circuito Retake Group D	1	100.0%	0.020

Calibration by decile

Predicted range	N	Predicted	Actual
0–10%	1	4.7%	0.0%
10–20%	30	15.7%	20.0%
20–30%	67	26.0%	26.9%
30–40%	107	34.7%	37.4%
40–50%	156	45.1%	50.0%
50–60%	168	55.0%	50.0%
60–70%	182	64.7%	71.4%
70–80%	123	74.9%	76.4%
80–90%	79	84.2%	86.1%
90–100%	18	91.7%	100.0%