Mon 31 Aug · 15:00 UK · Bo3

HOTUthe pick · Lean
70%model probability · fair odds 1.44
LandedHOTU won · Brier 0.092

The probability is the model's estimate from team ratings and form, locked before the match and never edited. “Fair odds” is just that probability written as a decimal price (1 ÷ probability), not a bookmaker's quote. Check the calibration record to see how often picks at this level actually land.